Thursday, July 24, 2008

Exposing Bush's Historic Abuse Of power



Salon has uncovered new evidence of post-9/11 spying on Americans. Obtained documents point to a potential investigation of the White House that could rival Watergate.


By Tim Shorrock


Jul. 23, 2008 | The last several years have brought a parade of dark revelations about the George W. Bush administration, from the manipulation of intelligence to torture to extrajudicial spying inside the United States. But there are growing indications that these known abuses of power may only be the tip of the iceberg. Now, in the twilight of the Bush presidency, a movement is stirring in Washington for a sweeping new inquiry into White House malfeasance that would be modeled after the famous Church Committee congressional investigation of the 1970s.


While reporting on domestic surveillance under Bush, Salon obtained a detailed memo proposing such an inquiry, and spoke with several sources involved in recent discussions around it on Capitol Hill. The memo was written by a former senior member of the original Church Committee; the discussions have included aides to top House Democrats, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Judiciary Committee chairman John Conyers, and until now have not been disclosed publicly.


Salon has also uncovered further indications of far-reaching and possibly illegal surveillance conducted by the National Security Agency inside the United States under President Bush. That includes the alleged use of a top-secret, sophisticated database system for monitoring people considered to be a threat to national security. It also includes signs of the NSA's working closely with other U.S. government agencies to track financial transactions domestically as well as globally.


The proposal for a Church Committee-style investigation emerged from talks between civil liberties advocates and aides to Democratic leaders in Congress, according to sources involved. (Pelosi's and Conyers' offices both declined to comment.) Looking forward to 2009, when both Congress and the White House may well be controlled by Democrats, the idea is to have Congress appoint an investigative body to discover the full extent of what the Bush White House did in the war on terror to undermine the Constitution and U.S. and international laws. The goal would be to implement government reforms aimed at preventing future abuses -- and perhaps to bring accountability for wrongdoing by Bush officials.


"If we know this much about torture, rendition, secret prisons and warrantless wiretapping despite the administration's attempts to stonewall, then imagine what we don't know," says a senior Democratic congressional aide who is familiar with the proposal and has been involved in several high-profile congressional investigations.


"You have to go back to the McCarthy era to find this level of abuse," says Barry Steinhardt, the director of the Program on Technology and Liberty for the American Civil Liberties Union. "Because the Bush administration has been so opaque, we don't know [the extent of] what laws have been violated."


The parameters for an investigation were outlined in a seven-page memo, written after the former member of the Church Committee met for discussions with the ACLU, the Center for Democracy and Technology, Common Cause and other watchdog groups. Key issues to investigate, those involved say, would include the National Security Agency's domestic surveillance activities; the Central Intelligence Agency's use of extraordinary rendition and torture against terrorist suspects; and the U.S. government's extensive use of military assets -- including satellites, Pentagon intelligence agencies and U2 surveillance planes -- for a vast spying apparatus that could be used against the American people.


Specifically, the ACLU and other groups want to know how the NSA's use of databases and data mining may have meshed with other domestic intelligence activities, such as the U.S. government's extensive use of no-fly lists and the Treasury Department's list of "specially designated global terrorists" to identify potential suspects. As of mid-July, says Steinhardt, the no-fly list includes more than 1 million records corresponding to more than 400,000 names. If those people really represent terrorist threats, he says, "our cities would be ablaze." A deeper investigation into intelligence abuses should focus on how these lists feed on each other, Steinhardt says, as well as the government's "inexorable trend towards treating everyone as a suspect."


"It's not just the 'Terrorist Surveillance Program,'" agrees Gregory T. Nojeim from the Center for Democracy and Technology, referring to the Bush administration's misleading name for the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program. "We need a broad investigation on the way all the moving parts fit together. It seems like we're always looking at little chunks and missing the big picture."


A prime area of inquiry for a sweeping new investigation would be the Bush administration's alleged use of a top-secret database to guide its domestic surveillance. Dating back to the 1980s and known to government insiders as "Main Core," the database reportedly collects and stores -- without warrants or court orders -- the names and detailed data of Americans considered to be threats to national security.


According to several former U.S. government officials with extensive knowledge of intelligence operations, Main Core in its current incarnation apparently contains a vast amount of personal data on Americans, including NSA intercepts of bank and credit card transactions and the results of surveillance efforts by the FBI, the CIA and other agencies. One former intelligence official described Main Core as "an emergency internal security database system" designed for use by the military in the event of a national catastrophe, a suspension of the Constitution or the imposition of martial law. Its name, he says, is derived from the fact that it contains "copies of the 'main core' or essence of each item of intelligence information on Americans produced by the FBI and the other agencies of the U.S. intelligence community."


Some of the former U.S. officials interviewed, although they have no direct knowledge of the issue, said they believe that Main Core may have been used by the NSA to determine who to spy on in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Moreover, the NSA's use of the database, they say, may have triggered the now-famous March 2004 confrontation between the White House and the Justice Department that nearly led Attorney General John Ashcroft, FBI director William Mueller and other top Justice officials to resign en masse.


The Justice Department officials who objected to the legal basis for the surveillance program -- former Deputy Attorney General James B. Comey and Jack Goldsmith, the former head of the Office of Legal Counsel -- testified before Congress last year about the 2004 showdown with the White House. Although they refused to discuss the highly classified details behind their concerns, the New York Times later reported that they were objecting to a program that "involved computer searches through massive electronic databases" containing "records of the phone calls and e-mail messages of millions of Americans."


According to William Hamilton, a former NSA intelligence officer who left the agency in the 1970s, that description sounded a lot like Main Core, which he first heard about in detail in 1992. Hamilton, who is the president of Inslaw Inc., a computer services firm with many clients in government and the private sector, says there are strong indications that the Bush administration's domestic surveillance operations use Main Core.


Hamilton's company Inslaw is widely respected in the law enforcement community for creating a program called the Prosecutors' Management Information System, or PROMIS. It keeps track of criminal investigations through a powerful search engine that can quickly access all stored data components of a case, from the name of the initial investigators to the telephone numbers of key suspects. PROMIS, also widely used in the insurance industry, can also sort through other databases fast, with results showing up almost instantly. "It operates just like Google," Hamilton told me in an interview in his Washington office in May.


Since the late 1980s, Inslaw has been involved in a legal dispute over its claim that Justice Department officials in the Reagan administration appropriated the PROMIS software. Hamilton claims that Reagan officials gave PROMIS to the NSA and the CIA, which then adapted the software -- and its outstanding ability to search other databases -- to manage intelligence operations and track financial transactions. Over the years, Hamilton has employed prominent lawyers to pursue the case, including Elliot Richardson, the former attorney general and secretary of defense who died in 1999, and C. Boyden Gray, the former White House counsel to President George H.W. Bush. The dispute has never been settled. But based on the long-running case, Hamilton says he believes U.S. intelligence uses PROMIS as the primary software for searching the Main Core database.


Hamilton was first told about the connection between PROMIS and Main Core in the spring of 1992 by a U.S. intelligence official, and again in 1995 by a former NSA official. In July 2001, Hamilton says, he discussed his case with retired Adm. Dan Murphy, a former military advisor to Elliot Richardson who later served under President George H.W. Bush as deputy director of the CIA. Murphy, who died shortly after his meeting with Hamilton, did not specifically mention Main Core. But he informed Hamilton that the NSA's use of PROMIS involved something "so seriously wrong that money alone cannot cure the problem," Hamilton told me. He added, "I believe in retrospect that Murphy was alluding to Main Core." Hamilton also provided copies of letters that Richardson and Gray sent to U.S. intelligence officials and the Justice Department on Inslaw's behalf alleging that the NSA and the CIA had appropriated PROMIS for intelligence use.


Hamilton says James B. Comey's congressional testimony in May 2007, in which he described a hospitalized John Ashcroft's dramatic standoff with senior Bush officials Alberto Gonzales and Andrew Card, was another illuminating moment. "It was then that we [at Inslaw] started hearing again about the Main Core derivative of PROMIS for spying on Americans," he told me.


Through a former senior Justice Department official with more than 25 years of government experience, Salon has learned of a high-level former national security official who reportedly has firsthand knowledge of the U.S. government's use of Main Core. The official worked as a senior intelligence analyst for a large domestic law enforcement agency inside the Bush White House. He would not agree to an interview. But according to the former Justice Department official, the former intelligence analyst told her that while stationed at the White House after the 9/11 attacks, one day he accidentally walked into a restricted room and came across a computer system that was logged on to what he recognized to be the Main Core database. When she mentioned the specific name of the top-secret system during their conversation, she recalled, "he turned white as a sheet."


An article in Radar magazine in May, citing three unnamed former government officials, reported that "8 million Americans are now listed in Main Core as potentially suspect" and, in the event of a national emergency, "could be subject to everything from heightened surveillance and tracking to direct questioning and even detention."


The alleged use of Main Core by the Bush administration for surveillance, if confirmed to be true, would indicate a much deeper level of secretive government intrusion into Americans' lives than has been previously known. With respect to civil liberties, says the ACLU's Steinhardt, it would be "pretty frightening stuff."


The Inslaw case also points to what may be an extensive role played by the NSA in financial spying inside the United States. According to reports over the years in the U.S. and foreign press, Inslaw's PROMIS software was embedded surreptitiously in systems sold to foreign and global banks as a way to give the NSA secret "backdoor" access to the electronic flow of money around the world.


In May, I interviewed Norman Bailey, a private financial consultant with years of government intelligence experience dating from the George W. Bush administration back to the Reagan administration. According to Bailey -- who from 2006 to 2007 headed a special unit within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence focused on financial intelligence on Cuba and Venezuela -- the NSA has been using its vast powers with signals intelligence to track financial transactions around the world since the early 1980s.


From 1982 to 1984, Bailey ran a top-secret program for President Reagan's National Security Council, called "Follow the Money," that used NSA signals intelligence to track loans from Western banks to the Soviet Union and its allies. PROMIS, he told me, was "the principal software element" used by the NSA and the Treasury Department then in their electronic surveillance programs tracking financial flows to the Soviet bloc, organized crime and terrorist groups. His admission is the first public acknowledgment by a former U.S. intelligence official that the NSA used the PROMIS software.


According to Bailey, the Reagan program marked a significant shift in resources from human spying to electronic surveillance, as a way to track money flows to suspected criminals and American enemies. "That was the beginning of the whole process," he said.


After 9/11, this capability was instantly seen within the U.S. government as a critical tool in the war on terror -- and apparently was deployed by the Bush administration inside the United States, in cases involving alleged terrorist supporters. One such case was that of the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation in Oregon, which was accused of having terrorist ties after the NSA, at the request of the Treasury Department, eavesdropped on the phone calls of Al-Haramain officials and their American lawyers. The charges against Al-Haramain were based primarily on secret evidence that the Bush administration refused to disclose in legal proceedings; Al-Haramain's lawyers argued in a lawsuit that was a violation of the defendants' due process rights.


According to Bailey, the NSA also likely would have used its technological capabilities to track the charity's financial activity. "The vast majority of financial movements of any significance take place electronically, so intercepts have become an extremely important element" in intelligence, he explained. "If the government suspects that a particular Muslim charitable organization is engaged in collecting funds to funnel to terrorists, the NSA would be asked to follow the money going into and out of the bank accounts of that charity." (The now-defunct Al-Haramain Foundation, although affiliated with a Saudi Arabian-based global charity, was founded and based in Ashland, Ore.)


The use of a powerful database and extensive watch lists, Bailey said, would make the NSA's job much easier. "The biggest problems with intercepts, quite frankly, is that the volumes of data, daily or even by the hour, are gigantic," he said. "Unless you have a very precise idea of what it is you're looking for, the NSA people or their counterparts [overseas] will just throw up their hands and say 'forget it.'" Regarding domestic surveillance, Bailey said there's a "whole gray area where the initiation of the transaction was in the United States and the final destination was outside, or vice versa. That's something for the lawyers to figure out."


Bailey's information on the evolution of the Reagan intelligence program appears to corroborate and clarify an article published in March in the Wall Street Journal, which reported that the NSA was conducting domestic surveillance using "an ad-hoc collection of so-called 'black programs' whose existence is undisclosed." Some of these programs began "years before the 9/11 attacks but have since been given greater reach." Among them, the article said, are a joint NSA-Treasury database on financial transactions that dates back "about 15 years" to 1993. That's not quite right, Bailey clarified: "It started in the early '80s, at least 10 years before."


Main Core may be the contemporary incarnation of a government watch list system that was part of a highly classified "Continuity of Government" program created by the Reagan administration to keep the U.S. government functioning in the event of a nuclear attack. Under a 1982 presidential directive, the outbreak of war could trigger the proclamation of martial law nationwide, giving the military the authority to use its domestic database to round up citizens and residents considered to be threats to national security. The emergency measures for domestic security were to be carried out by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Army.


In the late 1980s, reports about a domestic database linked to FEMA and the Continuity of Government program began to appear in the press. For example, in 1986 the Austin American-Statesman uncovered evidence of a large database that authorities were proposing to use to intern Latino dissidents and refugees during a national emergency that might follow a potential U.S. invasion of Nicaragua. During the Iran-Contra congressional hearings in 1987, questions to Reagan aide Oliver North about the database were ruled out of order by the committee chairman, Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye, because of the "highly sensitive and classified" nature of FEMA's domestic security operations.


In September 2001, according to "The Rise of the Vulcans," a 2004 book on Bush's war cabinet by James Mann, a contemporary version of the Continuity of Government program was put into play in the hours after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when Vice President Cheney and senior members of Congress were dispersed to "undisclosed locations" to maintain government functions. It was during this emergency period, Hamilton and other former government officials believe, that President Bush may have authorized the NSA to begin actively using the Main Core database for domestic surveillance. One indicator they cite is a statement by Bush in December 2005, after the New York Times had revealed the NSA's warrantless wiretapping, in which he made a rare reference to the emergency program: The Justice Department's legal reviews of the NSA activity, Bush said, were based on "fresh intelligence assessment of terrorist threats to the continuity of our government."


It is noteworthy that two key players on Bush's national security team, Cheney and his chief of staff, David Addington, have been involved in the Continuity of Government program since its inception. Along with Donald Rumsfeld, Bush's first secretary of defense, both men took part in simulated drills for the program during the 1980s and early 1990s. Addington's role was disclosed in "The Dark Side," a book published this month about the Bush administration's war on terror by New Yorker reporter Jane Mayer. In the book, Mayer calls Addington "the father of the [NSA] eavesdropping program," and reports that he was the key figure involved in the 2004 dispute between the White House and the Justice Department over the legality of the program. That would seem to make him a prime witness for a broader investigation.


Getting a full picture on Bush's intelligence programs, however, will almost certainly require any sweeping new investigation to have a scope that would inoculate it against charges of partisanship. During one recent discussion on Capitol Hill, according to a participant, a senior aide to Speaker Pelosi was asked for Pelosi's views on a proposal to expand the investigation to past administrations, including those of Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. "The question was, how far back in time would we have to go to make this credible?" the participant in the meeting recalled.


That question was answered in the seven-page memo. "The rise of the 'surveillance state' driven by new technologies and the demands of counter-terrorism did not begin with this Administration," the author wrote. Even though he acknowledged in interviews with Salon that the scope of abuse under George W. Bush would likely be an order of magnitude greater than under preceding presidents, he recommended in the memo that any new investigation follow the precedent of the Church Committee and investigate the origins of Bush's programs, going as far back as the Reagan administration.


The proposal has emerged in a political climate reminiscent of the Watergate era. The Church Committee was formed in 1975 in the wake of media reports about illegal spying against American antiwar activists and civil rights leaders, CIA assassination squads, and other dubious activities under Nixon and his predecessors. Chaired by Sen. Frank Church of Idaho, the committee interviewed more than 800 officials and held 21 public hearings. As a result of its work, Congress in 1978 passed the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which required warrants and court supervision for domestic wiretaps, and created intelligence oversight committees in the House and Senate.


So far, no lawmaker has openly endorsed a proposal for a new Church Committee-style investigation. A spokesman for Pelosi declined to say whether Pelosi herself would be in favor of a broader probe into U.S. intelligence. On the Senate side, the most logical supporters for a broader probe would be Democratic senators such as Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, who led the failed fight against the recent Bush-backed changes to FISA. (Both Feingold and Leahy's offices declined to comment on a broader intelligence inquiry.)


The Democrats' reticence on such action ultimately may be rooted in congressional complicity with the Bush administration's intelligence policies. Many of the war on terror programs, including the NSA's warrantless surveillance and the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques," were cleared with key congressional Democrats, including Pelosi, Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Rockefeller, and former House Intelligence chairwoman Jane Harman, among others.


The discussions about a broad investigation were jump-started among civil liberties advocates this spring, when it became clear that the Democrats didn't have the votes to oppose the Bush-backed bill updating FISA. The new legislation could prevent the full story of the NSA surveillance programs from ever being uncovered; it included retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies that may have violated FISA by collaborating with the NSA on warrantless wiretapping. Opponents of Bush's policies were further angered when Democratic leaders stripped from their competing FISA bill a provision that would have established a national commission to investigate post-9/11 surveillance programs.


The next president obviously would play a key role in any decision to investigate intelligence abuses. Sen. John McCain, the Republican candidate, is running as a champion of Bush's national security policies and would be unlikely to embrace an investigation that would, foremost, embarrass his own party. (Randy Scheunemann, McCain's spokesman on national security, declined to comment.)


Some see a brighter prospect in Barack Obama, should he be elected. The plus with Obama, says the former Church Committee staffer, is that as a proponent of open government, he could order the executive branch to be more cooperative with Congress, rolling back the obsessive secrecy and stonewalling of the Bush White House. That could open the door to greater congressional scrutiny and oversight of the intelligence community, since the legislative branch lacked any real teeth under Bush. (Obama's spokesman on national security, Ben Rhodes, did not reply to telephone calls and e-mails seeking comment.)


But even that may be a lofty hope. "It may be the last thing a new president would want to do," said a participant in the ongoing discussions. Unfortunately, he said, "some people see the Church Committee ideas as a substitute for prosecutions that should already have happened."


(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.

A Quiet Coup. Bush/Cheney Steps To Martial Law.

This Coup began in November, 1963, not in 2000.

BUZZFLASH READER CONTRIBUTION

by Ed Ciaccio


If U.S. corporate media were not complicit in the Quiet Coup staged by Neoconservatives of BOTH major political parties since December 2000, we would have been thoroughly informed about all of the following, with their implications and ramifications. But corporate media has so much to gain by its complicity, and so much to lose by fulfilling its responsibility in a supposed democracy, that it has gone along with the misinformation, neglect, and cover-ups.


The Democrats refused to contest either the 2000 or 2004 elections, despite glaring irregularities and violations of precedence. Democrats have continued to vote for most of the Cheney/Bush agenda, both foreign and domestic, over the last seven and a half years, with very few exceptions.


Democrats, except for Cynthia McKinney (now Green Party candidate for president), Dennis Kucinich, and Robert Wexler, have refused to support impeachment hearings for Cheney's and Bush's many, many gross violations of Constitutional and international law, let alone their war crimes. In fact, Democratic leaders themselves have been complicit in some of these war crimes, and most Democrats continue to vote funding for the illegal wars and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, refusing to question the sanity and legality of Bush's "Global War on Terror."


For an outline of the steps to fascism, gleaned from history, see "Fascist America in 10 easy steps" by Naomi Wolf (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/apr/24/usa.comment)


The following events and actions are actual and historical, not theoretical, and are by no means exhaustive:


Cheney/Bush's Steps To Martial Law (as of July 21, 2008):


1. Stealing the 2000 presidential election in Florida (with the help of Florida's Secretary of State Katherine Harris, who was also co-chair of the Florida Bush Election Campaign, and the five regressive Supreme Court Justices appointed by Nixon, Reagan, and Bush, Sr.)


2. 9/11/01 attacks (Bush had been warned numerous times since Jan. 2001)


3. Bush's GWOT - Global war on Terror ("You're either with us, or with the terrorists!")


4. Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists (only one member of Congress voted against it)


5. Patriot Act I (obviously prepared well in advance of the 9/11 attacks, it was rushed into law before most members of Congress had read it)


6. Bush's hundreds of "signing statements" basically negating laws passed by Congress with which he disagreed


7. Stealing the 2004 presidential election in Ohio (with the help of Ohio's Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, also co-chair of the "Committee to re-elect George W. Bush")


8. Bush's multiple violations of the original FISA law (revealed Dec., 2005 and admitted by Bush himself)


9. Bush's Homeland Security contract to KBR for construction of "detention centers" across the U.S.


10. The Military Commissions Act of 2006


11. The John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007 (see, especially, Section 1076)


12. National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD 51 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-20


13. H.R. 1955: Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007 (the "Thought Crime Act") passed the House 404 to 6, with 22 not voting; Democratic Representative Jane Harman, its prime sponsor, was one notable Democrat who was privy to Bush Administration torture information in 2002. Its Senate counterpart, S. 1959, is still in committee.


14. FISA "Reform" Act (not only granted retroactive AND FUTURE immunity to telecoms for their complicity in Bush's violations of the original FISA Law, but also, implicitly, to Bush, as well as gutting the Fourth Amendment guarantee of privacy).


15. Federal 4th Circuit Appeals Court gives the president sweeping power to deprive anyone -- citizens as well as noncitizens -- of their freedom. The designation "enemy combatant," which should apply only to people captured on a battlefield, can now be applied to ANY people detained inside the United States.


As a result of these steps, the president now has much more power than ever before in U.S. history, certainly more than our Constitution allows him, according to most Constitutional scholars such as Jonathan Turley, Glenn Greenwald, Bruce Fein, and John Dean.


The important question is, what, if anything, will the new president, Obama or McCain, do to reverse any of these steps (except for numbers 1, 2, and 7, obviously)?



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Liberal Bloggers Brace For Victory?


I'll express some thoughts in the next post about this topic, as I have had some thoughts wandering around the old synapses as of late.


Naturally, I'll post some shorter thoughts throughout the following article about the so-called Netroots. It's an important subject; far more important than than even the people at its center realize.

Obama's Prospects Pose New Concerns for Netroots

By Jose Antonio Vargas
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 21, 2008; C01


AUSTIN, July 20 -- "Yep, the way it's looking, we might actually win this thing . . ."


That's Markos Moulitsas talking, a.k.a. "Kos" to everyone here at Netroots Nation, the four-day liberal blogapalooza that ended Sunday at the Austin Convention Center. He's got a head cold, which explains his hoarse, strained voice, and by "we," he means the Netroots and their candidate of choice, Sen. Barack Obama. If the Netroots can be compared to high school -- still maturing, somewhat cliquish but definitely a community -- then Obama, as the presumptive nominee, had been voted Most Likely to Succeed.


That's a very good analogy. It certainly rings true in my experience. As an independent with many ideas and beliefs that one would certainly consider liberal, even progressive, with others most would consider conservative to moderate, I constantly get verbally whacked in the comment sections of blogs from both ends of the political spectrum. I don't know much about party politics, but it seems to me that insulting people, whom one does not know in the slightest, based on one comment, doesn't do much for one's cause, whatever that might be. It's never wise for either political party to insult a politically involved independent. The blogosphere still has a long way to go if it is to reach its potential as a political tool.


Hardest Worker and Best Dressed honors went to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who kicked off Saturday morning's program with a freewheeling 40-minute "Ask the Speaker" session. ("Damn, Nancy looks grrreat in that pantsuit," a blogger was overheard saying.) Most Popular would go to Al Gore, who brought the crowd of more than 2,000 conventioneers to its feet with his surprise appearance, repeatedly asking bloggers to visit WeCanSolveIt.org, home to his new group, the Alliance for Climate Protection.


True, Pelosi looked good in her pants suit. She also, from a number of pictures I've seen, looks a bit haggared; an appearance one develops while experience term stress. Anyone wonder why? I do.


I seem to remember Bill Clinton saying that that he wanted to base his ex-presidency on that of Jimmy Carter. I have no idea what Bill is doing with the exceptions of raising money for his presidential library, campaigning for his wife, flying around the world with and sharing sailing weekends with G.H.W. Bush and pulling in the big bucks with speeches. Whatever his causes, his ex-presidency, so far, looks nothing like that of Carter. Seems it's Gore, whose ex-vice presidency is one of service to not only his country, but for the entire planet, who resembles Carter, in the years after holding high office in D.C. Good on Mr. Gore.


Both men have my highest admiration.


But Obama, who leads Sen. John McCain in recent national polls, is Topic A among the Netroots, his fate somewhat married to theirs. Five years ago liberal bloggers made a name for themselves at a time of defeat; Republicans controlled not just the White House but both houses in Congress. They craved a fight, and President Bush was their punching bag.


The liberal, democratic bloggers weren't the only ones who wanted a fight. I was one angry-as-hell individual. I was ready for a freakin' fist fight.


But these are changing times, and Obama, in his calls for getting past blue vs. red America, and in his recent positions on issues such as telecom immunity, is somewhat of an enigma. With the Dems taking back Congress in 2006 and the prospect of an Obama victory come November, many in the influential Netroots are left in a precarious, ambiguous position. The question is, who needs whom: Does Obama need the Netroots, or vice versa?


Kos, never one to mince words, is blunt.


"It's not a question of who needs whom. Fact is, the Netroots are not going to be the decisive factor," Kos says, fidgeting with his iPhone as he sits on a lounge chair at the Hilton, across the street from the convention center. "But having said that, we're an activist set of people: We're engaged, we give money, we put boots on the ground. That's why when many of us had a genuine disagreement with Obama on FISA" -- Obama voted for a bill that provided retroactive immunity to telecom companies -- "we let him know about it."


He's got that right, in a way. The people of the Netroots will not decide who the next president is, by voting on election day. Nevertheless, the Netroots are having more of an effect this year than we did in 2004. I can't say that that is because of anything the bloggers are doing differently than we did then. More likely it is because there are more small community news aggregators than there were 4 years ago. More people are getting at least some of their news from the blogosphere. The biggest reason the Democrats are facing victory (unless they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, again) is George W. Bush and Dick Cheney and their gang of constitutional and international criminals.


Though his site, Daily Kos, is arguably the liberal blogosphere's most popular hub, Kos is not the Netroots. He's just at the center of the quad, with other blogs filling the rest of the always packed, often clangorous hallways. And with each passing year, the crowd gets bigger, the tent wider.


At the first confab, then called YearlyKos and held in Las Vegas, some 1,200 attended, most of them blog jockeys who knew each other only by their online names. Last year at least 1,500 attendees made the trek to Chicago, including all but one of the eight Democratic presidential candidates, who sat down for a 90-minute forum. Among those present were bloggers, pols and their minions, policy analysts and think tank reps.


This past weekend, those same types showed up, plus tech firms such as Wired for Change, hawking an online product called Salsa that helps groups engage people through e-mail lists. There's no denying that the gathering has crossed the mainstream threshold when swag bags, complete with El Sabroso Salsita salsa chips, were handed out alongside condoms from the Center for Constitutional Rights.


As in any community, as in many high schools, Netroots can appear both self-segregating -- black bloggers at one table, Latinos at another and gays at the next -- and not diverse enough. After the Q&A session with Pelosi, in which the first questions asked were about impeaching President Bush and Vice President Cheney, the FISA bill and abstinence-only education, some black bloggers complained that they weren't enough questions about rising gas and food prices.


The "black bloggers" are right. There are people all around me who can't tell you who their senator is, let alone what "FISA" means. But they do understand that gas prices are breaking their economic backs. High fuel prices, food prices, the housing/credit crisis, the healthcare crisis (and there is one; a huge one) and other main street issues are issues that effect the largest percentage of the voters and do so in a very obvious, non-deniable ways. They sure as hell know what corporate welfare and political cronyism are. They have seen it in action, at least since Katrina, when over-worked, over-extended people started paying attention, en masse.


I'm not saying that FISA isn't important. It is immensely important. So is accountability! Nevertheless, those issues will not put Obama in the White House.


"It reflects a bit of skew," Cheryl Contee, a member of the convention's advisory board, says of the questions to Pelosi. Contee, who is black, runs Fission, a social media consulting firm. "Folks in the convention have to keep in mind that not everyone who considers themselves a part of the Netroots is here, and many of them aren't as concerned about, say, FISA or impeachment. They want jobs."


Amen!


Obama's standing here, especially with big-name bloggers such as Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, has proved complicated. Two years ago, frustrated by bloggers' reaction to two Democratic senators who voted to confirm John Roberts as chief justice, Obama wrote a posting on Daily Kos:


"According to the storyline that drives many advocacy groups and Democratic activists -- a storyline often reflected in comments on this blog -- we are up against a sharply partisan, radically conservative, take-no-prisoners Republican party," wrote Obama, who voted no on the Roberts confirmation.


Last year, at the height of the primary campaign, Obama often placed second behind former senator John Edwards in the monthly and unscientific Daily Kos straw polls. In October, he fell third behind Edwards and Sen. Chris Dodd. When Obama examined former president Ronald Reagan's legacy earlier this year and said it "changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not," a blizzard of comments hit blogs, many of them critical.


This describes the kind of knee-jerk, unthinking reaction easily found on either side of the political fence in this country. Obama was absolutely right in what he said. Reagan did change the political landscape in the U.S. and in such a way that there is no going back and in a way that Nixon and Clinton did not. Not all U.S. presidents should or could be transforming presidents. Those kinds of presidents only come along every 20 year or so. They are transforming personalities who recognize a movement among the people before anyone else does. Perhaps that is because they agree with the basic tenets of that movement; a movement born out of a great necessity of the time. I believe that Obama is going to be a transforming president.


A few weeks ago, after Obama's upcoming vote for the FISA bill provoked angry comments on his own social networking site, My.BarackObama.com, Obama posted an explanation on his blog. "Democracy cannot exist without strong differences. And going forward, some of you may decide that my FISA position is a deal breaker," Obama wrote.


I admit that I have not read the FISA Bill in its latest incarnation. If Russ Feingold thinks it stinks and must be fixed in future and Hillary voted against it, my guess is that the new FISA Bill isn't all that better than the last one. Nevertheless, it can be fixed, but that won't happen during a McCain administration.


"Think about it: Netroots was born at a time when the Democrats were in opposition, and it's learning how to be a force of good when the Democrats are in power -- and could have more power next year," says Simon Rosenberg of the New Democrat Network. A speaker at the confab, Rosenberg is a bridge of sorts between Official Washington (he worked in the first Clinton White House) and New Washington (he wrote the foreword to "Crashing the Gate: Netroots, Grassroots, and the Rise of People-Powered Politics," which Kos co-authored).


How hard can this be? Anyone who has the power to do so should hold their elected officials feet to the fire. They should also pick their battles and realize that if democracy is to be ressurected in America and the constituion restored, D.C. (and the country) must move toward concensus governance. If that takes a multi-party system, as I believe it will, bloggers need to be prepared to lead the way in making that system a reality and stop clinging to the two major political parties, neither of which seem to stand for anything these days..


Adds Andrew Rasiej, also a speaker at the convention and founder of Personal Democracy Forum, an online think tank that analyzes how the Internet affects politics: "For most everyone in the Netroots, the main goal right now is get Obama elected. Period. Now how the Netroots and Obama move forward after November, if he is elected, is another issue."


The mood between Obama and the Netroots has warmed in the past few months. Obama, who's on his first overseas tour since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, sent a 10-minute video greeting to the conventioneers.


"We've had some disagreements in the past, and we'll have some disagreements in the future," Obama says in the video. "I promise to continue to listen to your concerns, take them seriously and discuss them respectfully."


....and again, the loudest voices are heard.


The audience claps warmly, and among those watching are Edmundo Rocha, of Houston, and Manuel Guzman, of Tucson, Ariz., Latino bloggers who recently launched The Sanctuary, a site written by a multi-ethnic group of bloggers concerned about migrant rights and immigration reform. The group sent a list of detailed, pointed questions to Obama. They're still waiting to get adequate responses, they add.


"I've been waiting to see just how much he's going to involve the Netroots in the way he thinks about policies," says Guzman, who voted for Obama during the primaries but says he was "disappointed" with Obama's FISA vote.


Obama is a senator right now. If he isn't who we think he is after his inauguration that will be the time to be more than just disappointed.


"The Netroots are not going away. It's only going to get bigger," Guzman continues. "We're all learning to live with each other."


Let's hope so.



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


Thursday, July 17, 2008

Economy In Turmoil

U.S. Financial Crisis Increasingly Infecting The Rest of the World


By Anthony Faiola and Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, July 16, 2008; A01


Fresh worries spread through world markets yesterday as a crisis of confidence battered more U.S. financial institutions and the chairman of the Federal Reserve issued a sober assessment of the country's economic woes. It appeared to mark a new phase in the U.S. financial crisis, with fears of a contagion effect that could yet weigh more heavily on the global economy.


With world capital markets interconnected as never before -- financial problems at U.S. banks are affecting pension funds in Japan as well as depositors in California -- a mounting sense that America's financial crisis is still far from touching bottom is adding to global troubles, including rising overall inflation and soaring energy prices.


In Paris and London, stock markets fell yesterday to their lowest levels since 2005, partly as investors doubted plans unveiled by U.S. regulators this weekend to prop up the ailing government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In Tokyo, the benchmark stock index fell 2 percent, slipping to levels not seen in 3 1/2 months as the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan's three largest banks were holding at least $44.2 billion in debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.


The dollar fell to a new low against the euro, though in one piece of good news, oil prices fell sharply, a key reason that the U.S. stock market was down only 1.1 percent, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.


The gloomy environment reflects a financial crisis that began last summer and now has spread to regional banks as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. U.S. Bancorp missed earnings projections, and a leading analyst issued a dire warning on a mountain of potentially bad debt held by banking giant Wachovia. International news agencies beamed images of panicked Californians jostling to get their savings out of the failed IndyMac Bancorp -- images once associated with developing nations and not the world's economic powerhouse.


President Bush yesterday sought to reassure shaky markets and frightened consumers, asserting that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound and urging Congress to quickly pass legislation to shore up the government-sponsored lenders. He downplayed predictions that a large number of banks may be on the verge of failure and explained at length about the federal insurance system that guarantees deposits up to $100,000.


"I understand there is a lot of nervousness," Bush said. "But the economy is growing, productivity is high, trade is up, people are working. It's not as good as we'd like, but to the extent that we find weakness, we'll move."


Yet the tipping points of economic crises, analysts said, are almost always more about psychology than fundamentals, with panic over a bank's insolvency, for instance, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.


"I think the problem now is a general confidence crisis that is complicated by some global contagion that's now spreading," said Brian Bethune, a chief economist with Global Insight of Lexington, Mass.


U.S regulators "need to act promptly and forcefully to break the psychology," he said. "I think the Treasury needs to be a bit more clear about what they're planning to do to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The details are still vague, and there is no room for that now."


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, testifying before Congress, painted a picture of a U.S. economy being squeezed from all directions. He cited the "numerous difficulties" that the central bank -- and all Americans -- are grappling with: "ongoing strains in financial markets; declining house prices; a softening labor market; and rising prices of oil, food and some other commodities."


Less than a month ago, the Fed had indicated that rising inflation was starting to become a bigger concern than the slumping economy. Since then, the stock market has fallen sharply and broader problems have emerged in financial markets, and there have been new signs of slowing global growth. That led Bernanke, in his semi-annual report to Congress on the economy, to emphasize the risks of high inflation and a weak economy in equal measure.


"The possibility of higher energy prices, tighter credit conditions and a still-deeper contraction in housing markets all represent significant downside risks to the outlook for growth," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee. "At the same time, upside risks to the inflation outlook have intensified lately as the rising prices of energy and some other commodities have led to a sharp pickup in inflation and some measures of inflation expectations have moved higher."


That language suggests that the Fed is still in a wait-and-see posture on monetary policy. If oil prices were to skyrocket anew or there were signs that Americans' expectations for inflation were becoming unhinged, the Fed could increase short-term interest rates to combat inflation. If there were new signs that the economy is getting far worse than expected, it could lower interest rates again, resuming a rate-cutting campaign that ran from September to April.


But more likely than either of those is that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged in the foreseeable future.


Despite the dour outlook, Bernanke offered no support for calls from some Democrats to enact a second economic stimulus package to try to bolster American consumers as the impact of the stimulus plan enacted early in the year wears off. "My own sense is that we are still trying to assess the effects of the first round," he said. "It might be yet a bit more time before we fully understand the extent to which additional stimulus may or may not be needed."


The Fed chairman saw some bright spots, noting that Americans' spending has held up better than might be expected given all the headwinds they face. Projections released yesterday showed that the 17 top leaders of the Federal Reserve were slightly more optimistic about the outlook for growth this year than they had been in April -- but significantly more pessimistic about inflation.


Bernanke, too, expressed continued deep worries about rising prices, saying that higher gasoline prices mean that inflation "seems likely to move temporarily higher in the near term" and that businesses may to try to pass along higher energy costs to consumers "more aggressively than they have so far."


Global concern is mounting for several reasons. First, foreign financial institutions are heavily exposed to U.S. lending giants, and an estimated 50 percent of U.S. mortgage-backed securities are held by foreign investors.


While Citibank and Merrill Lynch have been forced to take massive write-downs on bad U.S. loans, so, too, have the Swiss banking giant UBS and Germany's IKB Deutsche Industriebank. In Norway, eight towns have reported losing at least $125 million on their investments in U.S. mortgages. In Japan, several pension funds have significant portions of their investments in debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. American woes have fostered a global credit crunch, claiming overseas victims such as Britain's Northern Rock, where a lack of liquidity led to its nationalization by the British government in February.


Of equal concern is that U.S. consumers, who gobble up more foreign goods than the citizens of any other land, will be forced to downscale their lifestyles significantly in the face of falling housing values, rising unemployment and a possible recession.


One camp of economists has argued that the rest of the world has to some measure "decoupled" from the U.S. economy -- with consumers in Europe, Asian powerhouses such as China and India, and fast-growing Latin America potentially blunting the drag on the global economy from a U.S. recession. But others have argued that soaring energy prices, rising inflation and a weakening dollar are already zapping the strength out of the world economy, with a full blown U.S. recession likely to take the wind out of the sails of global growth.


"The rest of the world has accumulated U.S. assets, and if these prices go down, the rest of the world suffers," said Alex Patelis, head of international economics for Merrill Lynch in London. "That said, many foreign banks are still doing very well. In Japan, for example, you have one of the healthiest banking sectors around. So there is a global impact, but the biggest impact is still going to be in the United States."



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


Americans Losing Faith In Free Markets

Could it be that Americans have realized, finally, that the markets aren't free, but a fixed game that favors wealthy investors in private investor clubs like the Carlyle Group and others, as well as hedge funds?


http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-losingfaith16-2008jul16,0,1516735.story
From the Los Angeles Times

Things are hard all over the financial landscape, and politicians and experts are now looking with favor at more, not less, government involvement in the economy.


By Peter G. Gosselin
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer


July 16, 2008


WASHINGTON — For a generation, most people accepted the idea that the core of what makes America tick was an economy governed by free markets. And whatever combination of goods, services and jobs the market cooked up was presumed to be fine for the nation and for its citizens -- certainly better than government meddling.


No longer.


Spurred by the continued housing crisis, turmoil in financial markets, spiking oil prices, disappearing jobs and shrinking retirement savings, the nation and its political leaders have begun to sour on the notion that the current market system is the key to a fair, stable and efficient society.


"We're at a hinge point," said William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who helped craft President Clinton's market-friendly agenda during the 1990s. "The strong presumption in favor of markets, which has dominated public policy since the late 1970s, has been thrown very much into question."


Now, to a degree not seen in years, politicians and outside experts are looking with favor at more, not less, government involvement in the economy.


Of course, Americans always grouse during troubled times. And as market advocates are quick to point out, the current run of bad economic breaks has yet to result in the throwing over of free-market principles in favor of some drastically different approach -- such as a government-directed economy.


"There may be a backlash against markets at the moment," acknowledged Kevin A. Hassett, economic studies director at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and an advisor to presumed Republican presidential nominee John McCain. "But the backlash doesn't seem to be informed by any alternative view of how the world works."


Yet the sheer volume of setbacks that people have been dealt has sent consumer confidence to some of its lowest levels in half a century, according to Reuters/University of Michigan surveys. A remarkable 84% of Americans are convinced that the nation is on the "wrong track," according to a recent Gallup poll.


In just the last week, the financial markets have provided ample new evidence that markets are not working smoothly.


Washington had to ride to the rescue of two government-chartered mortgage giants -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which hold or guarantee nearly half of the nation's $12 trillion in mortgage debt -- after investors all but extinguished the pair's market value amid fears that falling home prices would push them into insolvency.


Meanwhile, federal regulators seized IndyMac Bancorp, a $32-billion mortgage lender based in Pasadena, in what regulators called the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. And the already battered stock market took another sharp dip.


The fact that experts keep pushing back the date when conditions may improve and the failure thus far of any national leader -- including either of the major-party presidential candidates -- to offer a convincing vision of how America will make its way back to sustained prosperity suggest that the current crisis will probably be very different from other recent economic bad patches.


So may Americans' reaction to it.


Even the Bush administration, which took office arguing that the Social Security crisis could be solved, in part, by tying some of retirees' future benefits to Wall Street, has begun advocating more government regulation of financial markets. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are government-chartered but investor-owned, began to teeter last week, the administration quietly went to work on possible government action.


"If the pendulum swung away from government toward much greater confidence in markets during the last generation, the pendulum is clearly swinging back again now," said Daniel Yergin, whose 1998 book with coauthor Joseph Stanislaw, "The Commanding Heights," chronicled the worldwide spread of the free-market credo.


"Everything is weighing in at the same time, and that affects how people view markets and government," Yergin said.


"Nobody in this country really believes in unfettered free markets, and nobody really believes in socialism," said UC Davis historian Eric Rauchway, but economic crises of the past have produced constituencies favoring the reining in of markets and regulation of the economy -- constituencies that ultimately grew large enough to produce change.


Consider just a few of the things that are pushing people in that direction now:


The price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has nearly doubled in the last year, while that for a barrel of crude oil has more than doubled, cutting short Americans' love affair with gas-guzzlers and driving the nation's trucking, auto and airline industries into deep trouble.


Most mainstream economists assert that these increases are simply the logical outcome of booming global demand meeting limited global supply.


But the price run-ups seem out of whack with demand, which has increased only about 1% worldwide. The mismatch has fueled suspicion among many Americans and their political leaders that the third financial bubble of the decade -- after tech stocks and housing -- is underway, this time in energy.


Both presidential candidates have fingered market speculators, rather than the forces of supply and demand, for helping drive up prices.


At a recent hearing, Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.) cornered the federal official whose agency regulates the market where oil futures are traded. "How is it that the market isn't working to the benefit of the consuming public?" the lawmaker demanded.


The agency has launched a number of studies to discover whether speculators are behind the price increases, the official answered.


"Don't tell me you're doing studies!" Dingell shot back. "You've spent more than a year sitting idly by" while oil prices jumped.


At least half a dozen measures have been introduced in Congress to limit speculation or to tax oil company profits.


Similar anger -- and similar legislative efforts to intervene in the marketplace -- can be seen in housing.


While Americans have been accustomed to some fluctuation in the value of their homes, most expected their houses to rise in value over time. And for much of the last several decades, that's what happened.


But starting in mid-2004, the upward arc of house prices began to flatten, and by 2007 it was falling -- sharply. Prices, especially along the West and East coasts, have skidded as much as 16% during the last year alone, their steepest decline in two decades. Many analysts predict further slippage.


In large part, the rise in house prices and the recent plunge grew out of an almost unregulated corner of the mortgage market -- the one for riskier loans.


As with fuel, "the message that Americans are getting is that something went wrong with the markets and you got hurt," said economist Robert E. Litan of the Brookings Institution and the Kauffman Foundation of Kansas City, Mo.


"With energy, it's the speculators. With housing, it's predatory lenders or crummy credit-rating agencies or stupid banks. We're not ready to throw out markets altogether," he said, "but we want government to do something about the excess."


A similar pattern of hopes raised and hopes dashed shows up in global trade and retirement investing.


Americans entered the new century convinced that "we had a new economy built on services and information technology that would let us win globally," said Harvard economist Robert Z. Lawrence.


"The whole premise of globalization in the year 2000 was that it worked well for us and the other developed countries but that the developing countries would need help," Lawrence said.


Today, virtually all those optimistic assumptions have been turned on their heads.


"We've seen unprecedented growth in the developing countries, while the developed countries are being led into a slowdown by the United States," Lawrence said.


"We've found out that instead of services and information technology, it's all about oil and other commodities" that are not the nation's strong suit.


Finally, when it comes to investment, especially for retirement, recent years have brought unsettling disappointments as the stock market has failed to regain and maintain the peaks that it reached in 2000.


An investor who put a dollar in a broad market index fund early in this decade not only would have made no money by today but would have lost a little of his initial amount.


That's a far cry from the 1990s, when people told pollsters that they expected to make 15% annual gains indefinitely.


Historians watching the nation's current economic and financial troubles say that just because Americans don't throw up their hands about markets and rush to an opposite pole, such as socialism, it doesn't mean that change isn't underway.


As UC Davis' Rauchway pointed out, the devastating panics and depressions of the late 19th century eventually resulted in the progressive reforms of the early 20th century and, later, the New Deal of the 1930s.


Today, Americans are not ready to throw out markets altogether, said economist Litan, but "what people may be demanding is New Deal lite."

peter.gosselin@latimes.com



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


In Defiance Of The Torture Lovers In The W.H......

We can only hope that there aren't enough sadist in the Senate to block an over-ride of the veto.


House passes CIA contractor ban over veto vow

U.S. lawmakers defied a White House veto threat on Wednesday and voted to bar CIA contractors from interrogating suspected terrorists, in the latest clash over detainee treatment in the U.S.-declared war on terrorism. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives approved the provision in adopting a broad measure to authorize funding of U.S. intelligence agencies for the 2009 fiscal year. A related bill awaits action in the Senate. Passage of the multi-billion dollar bill came on a voice vote, indicating broad assent, despite the White House veto threat issued earlier in the day.


(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


U.S. Diplomats To Be Stationed In Iran?

Washington move signals thaw in relations

Iranians pass a US flag with a sign reading


Iranians pass a US flag with a sign reading 'Death to America' as they attend a rally in Tehran, in 2004. Photograph: Hasan Sarbakhshian/AP


The US plans to establish a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time in 30 years as part of a remarkable turnaround in policy by President George Bush.


The Guardian has learned that an announcement will be made in the next month to establish a US interests section - a halfway house to setting up a full embassy. The move will see US diplomats stationed in the country.


The news of the shift by Bush who has pursued a hawkish approach to Iran throughout his tenure comes at a critical time in US-Iranian relations. After weeks that have seen tensions rise with Israel conducting war games and Tehran carrying out long-range missile tests, a thaw appears to be under way.


The White House announced yesterday that William Burns, a senior state department official, is to be sent to Switzerland on Saturday to hear Tehran's response to a European offer aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff.


Burns is to sit at the table with Iranian officials despite Bush repeatedly ruling out direct talks on the nuclear issue until Iran suspends its uranium enrichment programme, which is a possible first step on the way to a nuclear weapon capability.


A frequent complaint of the Iranians is that they want to deal directly with the Americans instead of its surrogates, Britain, France and Germany.


Bush has taken a hard line with Iran throughout the last seven years but, in the dying days of his administration, it is believed he is keen to have a positive legacy that he can point to.


The return of US diplomats to Iran is dependent on agreement by Tehran. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated earlier this week that he was not against the opening of a US mission. Iran would consider favourably any request aimed at boosting relations between the two countries, he said.


US interests in the country at present are looked after by the Swiss embassy. The British government restored its embassy in Tehran after Labour's 1997 general election victory as part of a policy of constructive diplomacy with countries that had previously been branded rogue states.


The creation of a US interest section would see diplomats stationed in Tehran for the first time since the hostage crisis that began when hundreds of students, as part of the Iranian revolution that led to fall of the Shah, stormed the US embassy in 1979 and held the occupants until 1981.


The special interests section would be similar to the one in Havana, Cuba. The US broke off relations with Cuba in 1961 after Castro's takeover but US diplomats returned in 1977.


The special interests section carries out all the functions of an embassy. It is, in terms of protocol, part of the Swiss embassy but otherwise is staffed by Americans and independent of the Swiss.


There has been an intense debate within the Bush administration over Iran, with the vice-president, Dick Cheney, in favour of a military strike against Iranian nuclear plants and the state department in favour of diplomacy.


The state department has been pressing the White House for the last two years to re-establish diplomatic relations with Tehran by setting up an interest section.


The state department is keen that the move should not be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

Sending Burns, who left Washington last night, to Geneva and the establishment of an interests section undercuts one of the main planks of foreign policy advocated by the Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, who argues for direct negotiations with Iran.


The White House has been working in tandem over the last month with Obama's Republican rival, John McCain.


The US has had to rely on British diplomats based in Tehran, as well as other diplomats, for information about the inner workings of Iranian politics. Having its own staff would give them access to students, dissidents and others. The staff would also process visa applications, at present handled by a small office in Dubai, which is difficult for Iranians to get to.


Ahmadinejad told a reporter earlier this week, in response to a question about a possible US interests section: "We will receive favourably any action which will help to reinforce relations between the peoples." He added: "We have not received any official request but we think that the development of relations between the two peoples is something correct."


That sentiment was echoed last month by secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, who told reporters: "We want more Iranians visiting the United States ... We are determined to reach out to the Iranian people."


Iran has an interests section in Washington, which would make it harder for Tehran to deny the Americans a similar arrangement.


Rice set up a group to study the feasibility of re-establishing a presence after the idea cropped up repeatedly in discussions among Washington thinktanks.


Asked last month about the idea, she would not confirm or deny it.


But she indicated that the present arrangement where there is an American visa office for Iranians in Dubai was inadequate.


"We know that it's difficult for Iranians sometimes to get to Dubai," she said.



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


Sunday, July 13, 2008

Will This Election Be Decided By The Reliably Ignorant?

Let's hope not, but if it is and McCain wins, Americans will get exactly what they deserve, with the exception of those of us who have seen the writing on the wall for some time and have made arrangements to get the hell out of here.

That Newsweek possesses a penchant for wry understatement was strikingly apparent when the magazine observed Friday: "Obama's overall decline from the last Newsweek Poll ... is hard to explain."


As it turned out, Barack Obama's decline -- a bellyflopping swan dive from a 15 point to merely three point lead over John McCain in only three weeks -- was actually quite impossible to explain, although speculation abounds.


It could be, of course, that Newsweek's latest poll is pure bunk. Or, it could be that Newsweek's previous poll was pure bunk. Such methodological matters are not unlike an ad exec trying to determine which half of his advertising isn't working. It's nigh impossible to say.


Notwithstanding what cable network analysts have been saying over the weekend, however, Newsweek's June poll -- the one showing a 15 point Obama advantage -- did not stand alone. For indeed there was another poll at the time, the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, that showed a similar Obama lead; in fact, an identical lead when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr were factored.


So who knows? Only one thing is certain: Princeton Survey Research Associates isn't. Because as Newsweek noted of its own poll's designer, PSRA "says some of the discrepancy between the two most recent polls may be explained by sampling error." Well, that's why they put erasers on pencils.


For the fainthearted I would add another finding as solace, however.


As everyone knows (admittedly a risky introduction to any sentence in such a "low-information" democracy), national polling numbers in head-to-head matchups don't mean much; rather, predicting a presidential election is all about the state-by-state electoral count.


And there, according to Real Clear Politics' latest averages of state-by-state polling, if one eliminates all those fussy "leaning" margins and just goes with the hard numbers as of today, then Obama wins the electoral college vote, 304 to 234.


Hey, work with me here. It's something, and that something is abundantly better than an actual 15-to-three point dive in merely three weeks. Naturally, it could be that both Newsweek polls were incorrect in their extremes, and a simple averaging of the two brings them into line with most other national polling.


Still, one marvels at the seeming flat-lining of Obama's numbers, whatever their vicissitudinous peaks and valleys. As Newsweek put it rather austerely: "Perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month."


In every issue-by-issue polling analysis done by virtually every polling organization, Obama crushes McCain across the board, except on the "protect us from terrorism" bugaboo. But in this election terrorism is rarely even among the top three national concerns, so "puzzling" indeed is Obama's issue dominance vis-à-vis his relative parity with McCain in a head-to-head matchup.


Unless, that is, one ponders the old bugaboos of race and religion in America, and their steadfast companion of staggering ignorance. I'll let Newsweek present the grisly details:


The new poll suggests white voters continue to be a challenge for Obama, with McCain leading the Democrat in that category 48 to 36 percent. Some of Obama's lag in white support may be explained by continual confusion over his religious identity.


Twelve percent of voters surveyed said that Obama was sworn in as a United States senator on a Qur'an, while 26 percent believe the Democratic candidate was raised as a Muslim and 39 percent believe he attended an Islamic school as a child growing up in Indonesia. None of these things is true. Finally cracking the code with less-educated whites could have a big payoff for Obama: 85 percent of undecided voters are non-Hispanic whites and only 22 percent of those undecideds have a four-year college degree.


OK, so the problem isn't disagreement with Obama on domestic issues, and it isn't national security concerns, and it isn't any severe fracture within the Democratic Party ("only 17 percent of former Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain in the general election," and even that statistic, given empirical data, is slated for continuing decline), and it is scarcely any burgeoning enthusiasm for another Republican president of Gothic disposition.


So let us think hard. What could the problem be; whatever could it be?


Senator Obama, of late you've done a nice job -- I'd go so far as to say an admirable job -- of cynically shifting to the political center, which is where, of course, the immutably cynical game of politics is won. But from now till the convention, it should be a game of little more than personal introduction and reintroduction -- of your biracial, Christian biography. For this election, like nearly all others, it appears, will be decided by the reliably ignorant.


Please respond to P.M.'s commentary by leaving comments below and sharing them with the BuzzFlash community. For personal questions or comments you can contact him at fifthcolumnistmail@gmail.com


THE FIFTH COLUMNIST by P.M. Carpenter


(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


An Autocratic Netroots?



The War, Dems, MoveOn and The Uprising
An interview with David Sirota


by John Stauber


Sheldon Rampton and I could see it coming soon after the Democrats took control of the Congress in 2007. In March, 2007 we pointed out that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, with the support of MoveOn, was advancing legislation that would fund the war in Iraq while giving Democrats PR cover, allowing them to posture against it while the bloody, brutal occupation of Iraq continues. We were attacked at the time by Democratic partisans, but unfortunately our analysis has proven correct and today the war in Iraq is as much of an interminable quagmire as it was when the Democrats took control of the House and Senate in January 2007.


Democratic political activist, columnist and author David Sirota has also strongly condemned this failure of the Democrats and “The Players,” DC’s professional partisan insiders such as MoveOn. On May 24, 2007 he wrote: “Today America watched a Democratic Party kick them square in the teeth - all in order to continue the most unpopular war in a generation at the request of the most unpopular president in a generation at a time polls show a larger percentage of the public thinks America is going in the wrong direction than ever recorded in polling history. … That will make May 24, 2007 a dark day generations to come will look back on - a day when Democrats in Washington not only continued a war they promised to end, but happily went on record declaring that they believe in their hearts that government’s role is to ignore the will of the American people.”


This month, more than a year later, the Democratic controlled Congress once again gave the Bush Administration funding to continue the Iraq war well into 2009. David Sirota now has a new book out: The Uprising: An Unauthorized Tour of the Populist Revolt Scaring Wall Street and Washington. In it he expands on his criticism of the Democratic Party and its partisan, professional antiwar activists in the leadership of MoveOn.


Sirota writes in his new book (page 82), “The absence of a full-throated antiwar uprising is tragic at a time when the country appears more skeptical of knee-jerk militarism than ever before. … When this particular war does eventually end, both AAEI and MoveOn will undoubtedly claim that their narrow, ultra-partisan Beltway strategies were the key. They are, after all, experts at media promotion, and such a laughable yet easy-to-understand story line will be fairly simple to sell in the same era that has seen politicians and television pundits originally lie the country into the conflict. But what will be little discussed is the possibility that … their strategies prolonged the Iraq War at a time when Democrats had the constitutional power of the purse to stop it immediately.” Sirota concludes, “The Players may actually not mind the war continuing, because it preserves an effective political cudgel against Republicans. Actually ending the war, after all, means less fodder for the next television ad.”


I recently reached David Sirota via email in the middle of his grueling months-long book promotion tour. He was “exhausted and tired from the tour” and “hiding out” over the 4th of July weekend at the home of his in-laws in rural Indiana, but he responded quickly to my questions.


STAUBER: What inspired your commitment to populism? Have you read the classic book Populist Moment about the powerful 19th century movements that were eventually done in by the banks and Democratic Party co-optation? And if so, what lessons do you take from it for 21st century populist progressive movements?.


SIROTA: My commitment to populism was originally forged from working with people like Bernie Sanders and Dave Obey - two very different politicians who, on economic issues, are populist to the core. My career has been one centered around the concept of social justice - and that probably was forged even earlier than my politics. I grew up in a progressive family, among progressive friends, and with constant progressive influences in my life - from school to summer camp. In writing the book, I studied a lot of populist history, including The Populist Moment.


STAUBER: You are a mainstream Democratic partisan who is embracing populism and in your book you criticize MoveOn, Netroots mavens like Markos, and other Democratic leaders for their single-minded partisanship. What sort of response has your advocacy of movement building received in those Netroots quarters?


SIROTA: I would hardly say I am “a mainstream Democratic partisan” - ask any “mainstream Democratic partisan” who knows me if I’m one of them, and they’ll say the same. I guess I have been “a mainstream Democratic partisan” at a few past moments in my career - namely, when I was the spokesman for Democrats on the House Appropriations Committee. But that was a two-year stint (and indeed a proud one) out of an entire career that has spanned working for Congress’s only independent, for Brian Schweitzer (hardly a typical Democrat) and as a progressive journalist. So far, the response to the book - and to the critiques in it - has been nothing but positive. As I say in the book, the Netroots is not a monolith - and I think people in that community have seen my writing as respectful and fair.


STAUBER: When the Democrats realized that the “gift” of the Iraq war — as Mario Cuomo has sarcastically called it — had given them control of the House and Senate in 2006, Pelosi and other leaders obviously decided to play it safe, not investigate this Administration for its many possibly impeachable offenses, and not force an end to the war by refusing to fund it. Apparently they hope that Iraq will play out politically in a similar fashion in the 2008 election and provide a Democratic victory. Do you agree with this analysis and whether or not you do, how do you view the failure of the Democrats and major collaborators like MoveOn to force an end to the war in Iraq after the 2006 elections that were such an anti-war vote?


SIROTA: Yes, I think Democrats are hoping that they can do nothing substantively to end the war, but get the sizeable antiwar vote in the general election nonetheless. The strategy is a predictable reflection of an unfortunate reality: namely, the reality that there in fact is no strong antiwar accountability system that is willing to use the election as an instrument of pressure. Instead, there are groups like Moveon.org that have built up an enormous capacity for pressure, but are using that enormous capacity as an appendage of the Democratic Party, regardless of whether Democrats use their congressional power to end the war.


STAUBER: MoveOn is not a movement although it wants to be perceived as one. It is a brilliant and effective fundraising and marketing machine, but 95% or more of their so-called members ignore any particular email appeal. These 3.2 million people on the MoveOn email list are the object of marketing and fundraising campaigns, but they have absolutely no meaningful or democratic control over the decisions of organization, there is no accountability from the leadership to the MoveOn list members, and those of us on the list are unable to organize and communicate amongst ourselves within the list because it can’t be accessed by the grassroots at the local or state level. MoveOn, the Democracy Alliance, and the various liberal think tanks that have arisen to fight the Right are clearly a force able to raise millions of dollars for Democratic candidates and launch PR and messaging campaigns, but none of them are about empowering a populist grassroots uprising. Or am I missing something?


SIROTA: I believe Moveon.org, the Democracy Alliance and the array of left-leaning institutions that have arisen in recent years possess a vast amount of potential for a progressive movement - but it is only potential at this point. That’s for many reasons - one of the biggest being the utter lack of small-d democracy. You cannot build a movement if you are unwilling to give up power to the rank-and-file.


STAUBER: Barring a military or terrorist attack that the Republicans could exploit, it seems certain that the Democrats will be able to win a solid majority in both the House and Congress this fall given the twin energy and economic crises, and the continuing war in Iraq. If Barack Obama loses the White House, do you see the Democratic Congress in 2009 any more likely to stand up to John McCain than it has to Bush on issues like this long, continuing war in Iraq?


SIROTA: No


STAUBER: I have read Obama’s autobiography and he is certainly an impressive person and thinker. However, his policies and political stands to date are rather mundane. If not for his opposition to the war before he was in the Senate, I doubt he would have defeated Hillary Clinton for the nomination. More recently he seems to have come under even more controlled management by his political handlers and pollsters, almost desperately trying to make his image as mainstream as possible. As a Democratic activist and a populist, how would you advise Obama right now?


SIROTA: Obama’s latest flip-flops are not moves to the “center” or the “mainstream” - by the empirical public opinion data on major issues, his moves are ones away from the center and from the mainstream. That’s not surprising - he has surrounded himself by Washington insiders whose definition of “the center” is radically different from where the actual center of American public opinion is. If he continues down this path, he will hurt his chances of winning the election. I would advise him to remember where mainstream public opinion is on issues like trade, the war and civil liberties is - and instead of going to the center of a corrupt Washington, go there.


STAUBER: If and when populist forces build an email list as big as MoveOn’s — and most of that list was built by MoveOn’s posturing as an ardent anti-war organization, which it is not - - and harness it for real grassroots empowerment, that is when we might see some exciting political developments that combine the Netroots and grassroots for fundamental change. I’d love to see a MoveOn-type organization that would actually trust and empower the millions of people on its email list so that the decision making, organizing and money benefit the grassroots and grow power from there upward, one in which the structure at the top is accountable to and elected by the members. It’s hard to have a political democracy when we don’t even have democratic organizations or movements. I’ve talked with some of the leadership of MoveOn about this, but they have no intention to democratize and will remain a top-down marketing and fundraising organization. How do you view this challenge of building a powerful new populist movement serves a movement rather than serving a Party or a small elite of decision makers who fund and run liberal think tanks?


SIROTA: It’s a huge challenge and gets to a deep psychological issue. Are we willing to think in movement terms, or are we going to keep succumbing to partisan terms foisted on us by a shallow media? Breaking free of that latter propaganda is no easy task - it requires a real commitment to grassroots organizing and education. That’s unglamorous stuff - the kind of stuff that doesn’t get you media accolades in the 24-hour news cycle. But it’s the kind of stuff that builds real power. I would say that if the institutions of the much-vaunted new progressive infrastructure are interested only in being celebrated in the short-term, meaningless media cycle, then they should do what they are doing. But if they are interested in actually building a movement that wields real power, they need to radically change from autocratic institutions looking for applause from Big Money, Big Media and big politicians, to democratic institutions looking to make meaningful change. There’s a reason why the labor movement continues to be the most durable and powerful movement apparatus in human history: it is fundamentally a democratic movement. Trying to build a progressive movement on an autocratic model is a concept that may change the deck chairs on the Titanic - but ultimately a concept that leaves everyone on a sinking ship.


STAUBER: What is the best way for people to find out more about your writing, work and new book?


SIROTA: The best link for my website is www.davidsirota.com and the best link to buy the book is at Powells: http://www.powells.com/biblio/0307395634


John Stauber is the founder (1993) and current executive director of the Center for Media and Democracy.


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