We predicted this two years ago!
September 15, 2008
NJ Congressman: Bush Admin. Will 'Gulf of Tonkinize' Iran
By Cheryl Biren-Wright
Before an audience of constituents, activists and veterans, U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews (D-NJ) issued a strong warning at a South Jersey Iraq War Forum in June:
There is a real and consistent concern that the government of Iran is attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Now there has been saber rattling about this. There’s going to be an attempt, I believe, to Gulf of Tonkinize this issue before the November election and I think you can anticipate all kinds of Naval adventures in the Persian Gulf that will try to be used as a pretext for an attack on Iran. I think that that will be the strategy in the November election. [video at 6 min]
ongressman Andrews made a similar charge two weeks prior while engaged in a bitter primary campaign against incumbent and fellow Democrat, Senator Frank Lautenberg.
In May, Max Pizarro of the Politickr quoted Rep. Andrews, "Every couple of weeks the administration tries to blow out of proportion a naval incident. If you look at their history - the way they beat up Max Cleland in 2002, and their use of the Bin Laden tape against Kerry in 2004 - I expect them to do something like that again, and I wouldn’t doubt their attempts to Gulf of Tonkinize Iran in an election year."
Pizarro either unconcerned or unfamiliar with what it would mean to "Gulf of Tonkinize" Iran zeroed in on Andrews claim that the 84-year-old Lautenberg could not "fight back against this Republican attack machine." Other media outlets ignored the statement altogether.
What makes the June 13 remarks any different? Ten days earlier, Rep. Andrews lost decidedly to the senior statesman from North Jersey. The race for the U.S. Senate was no longer a factor. In addition, Rep. Andrews who held the House seat since 1990 announced in April that he would not seek reelection in November if he lost to Sen. Lautenberg.
Empty Rhetoric or Fair Warning?
The idea that the Bush administration would deliberately provoke a military conflict with Iran was not a new concept particularly among the mostly antiwar audience. Strong words, however, from a congressman tapped by President Bush to coauthor the House version of the Iraq Resolution in 2002.
Additionally, Rep. Andrews who serves on the House Armed Services Committee, co-founded the Iran Working Group and is on the board of advisors of the Israel Project is known to take a hard line when it comes to Iran. Regarding a nuclear Iran, he is clear: "A nuclear Iran would present the world with a danger never before realized." In a 2006 address on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Rep. Andrews foreshadowed a "nuclear 9/11 in Lower Manhattan" if Iran were allowed to continue enriching uranium.
By February 2007, as Andrews’ faith in the administration’s handling of the Iraq War was waning, he began to express concern over President Bush’s approach to Iran. Andrews took to the House floor and argued that the House needed to affirm its constitutional prerogative and sole authority to declare war.
I am troubled by recent signs that I have seen from our administration with respect to the issue of Iran. Placement of naval assets in that area of the world is justified as a defensive measure, but I worry that it may be a provocative measure. The words of our President are words which can be taken, and I hope they are meant in the spirit of warning and cooperation, but they could also be taken in the spirit of provocation, and I hope and pray that they are not meant in that regard.
On May 16, 2007, Rep. Andrews’ amendment to the Defense Authorization Act for 2008 that would prevent authorized funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan from being used to plan a contingency operation in Iran was narrowly defeated. Among supporters was Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR).
Minutes later, the House voted on Rep. DeFazio’s amendment. It would clarify that no previously enacted law authorized military action against Iran. It prohibited funding authorized by the bill from being used to take military action against Iran without authorization from Congress unless there was a national emergency created by an attack by Iran. Andrews inexplicably voted against it.
The following month Rep. Andrews joined Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) in introducing the Iran Sanctions Enhancement Act of 2007. This bipartisan legislation would extend sanctions to entities that provide refined petroleum to Iran.
Now Congressman Andrews, a member of the House Armed Services Committee and Iran Working Group, predicts that in order to win an election for the Republicans, the administration will create a false flag, a casus belli, in order to attack Iran. Regardless of the reason, would the Bush administration take such sinister action? Journalist, Seymour Hersh, laid out such a case in his July article in the New Yorker, Preparing the Battlefield.
Were Rep. Andrews’ remarks partisan rhetoric or sincere warning? If it is the former, we may have stumbled upon a new low in partisan politics. If the latter, the question should be what is he going to do about it.
Caution and Reminders
Upon his return from Israel this summer, Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen warned of opening up a "third front" in Iran. He added, "Just about every move in that part of the world is a high risk move."
Furthermore, Dr. Thomas Fingar, Deputy Director of the NIA and Chair of the NIC reaffirmed in a keynote address two weeks ago what was stated in the November NIE on Iran that "work on the weaponization portion of the program was suspended."
Congressional Inaction and Reaction
If Rep. Andrews stands by his ‘Gulf of Tonkinize’ claim then he should be taking the proper steps to prevent what could be a catastrophic event. Unfortunately, the staffers in Andrews’ DC office are adept at reciting "we can’t speak for the congressman." Numerous attempts at clarification have been ignored.
Meanwhile, a controversial resolution on Iran, H. Con. Res. 362, continues to gain support. Despite sponsorship withdrawal by five House members (Reps. Danny Davis, Steve Cohen, Thomas Allen, Wm. Lacy Clay and John Lewis), there are presently 271 cosponsors. Three other cosponsors (Reps. Robert Wexler, Barney Frank, and Jackie Speier), have called for a change in specific language.
This non binding resolution, demands that the President prohibit the export of refined petroleum products to Iran and impose stringent inspections on persons and transport entering and departing Iran. In addition, it prohibits all Iranian officials not involved in negotiating a suspension of Iran’s nuclear program from international movement.
A related bill introduced by Senator Evan Bayh (R-IN) now with 50 cosponsors has been referred to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Contained in both resolutions are whereas clauses that are of questionable validity.
Should President Bush choose to rise to the occasion and act on the recommendations, a perfect storm for Mr. Andrews’ gloomy prediction may soon roll into the Persian Gulf.
Dissing the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran
Among the Key Judgments of the Nov. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran is the statement "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."
Before the NIE release President Bush, ratcheting up the rhetoric against Iran, invoked references such as "World War III." Never one to let 16 U.S. intelligence agencies get in his way, the president used the findings to boost his claim that Iran is a "threat to peace" adding "My opinion hasn’t changed."
Soon, the media and many members of Congress fell in line creating an opening for those hell-bent on opening up that third front.
Two weeks ago, John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN spoke to Pepe Escobar of the Real News. Regarding the November NIE, Bolton said, "Look, the NIE has been effectively repudiated by the intelligence community. It's as dramatic a reversal as I've ever seen. I don't think there's any doubt in most people's minds that Iran continues to pursue a nuclear-weapons capability, and I fear that they have achieved all of the scientific and technical knowledge that they need to have a deliverable nuclear weapon. So we're at a very critical point in dealing with Iran, and our options are quite limited."
Tell that to Dr. Fingar, Mr. Bolton.
Perversion of the NIE has also made its way into congressional legislation. One "whereas" clause within H. Con. Res. 362 states, "Whereas the November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate reported that Iran was secretly working on the design and manufacture of a nuclear warhead until at least 2003, but that Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon as soon as late 2009."
The first part of the clause is a far cry from the original that states "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."
Part two states "Iran could have enough HEU for a nuclear weapon as soon as late 2009." While the NIE judged with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of this is late 2009, it continued "but that this is very unlikely."
Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern who, during his 27-year tenure with the CIA, chaired National Intelligence Estimates commented "The resolution conveniently drops off the clause, but that this is very unlikely." He added, "That is so transparent and disingenuous that it is not worthy of legislators."
Recent news suggests the administration may not need to risk a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident. Israel Today reported over the weekend, "In an apparent about-face, the Bush Administration announced on Friday that it has decided to approve the sale of 1,000 advanced bunker-buster bombs to Israel."
If Israel uses these weapons against Iran it will come as no surprise if in the aftermath, the U.S. rushes to the aid of Israel. After all, Bush declared in an address to the Knesset in May that "America is proud to be Israel's closest ally and best friend in the world."
What should be done now?
Ray McGovern offered that "Mullen should formally and publicly request a Memorandum to Holders of the November 2007 NIE on Iran inquiring into what the evidence collected since mid-07 might tell us of any changes. He could do that and he should."
The function of an MTH explained McGovern "would be to update the most serious issues covered in the original NIE dated Nov. 07. A Memo to Holders could be done and coordinated among the 16 intelligence agencies in a month or two."
At least one member of Congress agrees with the need for an MTH. Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) offered an amendment to the 2009 National Intelligence Act that calls for a Memorandum to Holders of the NIE on Iran. The Bush administration has already threatened a veto.
McGovern responded, "It was a laudable effort on his part to try to make it law that there be an MTH so McConnell would be forced (theoretically, at least) to do one. But, it speaks volumes that a member of Reyes' committee thinks it necessary to do, via eminently veto-able legislation, what Reyes could do by just picking up the phone. HPSCI does, after all, control the CIA budget and other agencies' money as well."
Yes. Congress has the power to request an update - a Memorandum to Holders - of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.
With a surge in rhetoric, a U.S. sale of bunker-busting bombs to Israel, a media that hasn’t learned its lesson, charges that the administration will "Gulf of Tonkinize" Iran, and more members of Congress including Presidential candidates conveniently forgetting or dismissing the findings of the NIE on Iran, ordering a Memorandum to Holders is the responsible thing to do. Anything less would be gross misfeasance.
For five months, Mr. Andrews emphatically stated he would not seek reelection to the House if he lost the Senate primary. Last week, he threw his hat back in the ring replacing wife, Camille, on the ballot.
Mr. Andrews, now that you’re back in the game, action is what is needed. Call for a Memorandum to Holders of the 2007 NIE on Iran and invite your colleagues on both sides to join you. Set the record straight before President Bush taps you on the shoulder once again.
Congressman Rob Andrews: Phone 202-225-6501 Fax 202-225-6583
Authors Bio: Writer/Photographer. Advocate for clean government, media reform and civil liberties. Chair of the PDA-SJ Impeachment Team and co-leader of the NJ Impeach Groups. Writer and managing editor for OpEdNews.com. cherylbirenwright.wordpress.com
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