CBS News Reporting: Barack Obama Leads,

..even with superdelegates

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG

Mark Karlin, Editor and Publisher, BuzzFlash.com February 11, 2008

Democratic Race

Current Delegate Count:

BIDEN	0
CLINTON	1,131
DODD	0
EDWARDS	26
GRAVEL	0
KUCINICH	0
OBAMA	1,134
RICHARDSON	0

CBS News Delegate Count as of Feb. 11

CBS Delegate Count Includes Estimate of Superdelegate "Pledges"

With the decisive weekend sweep of four states and the Virgin Islands by Barack Obama, he has passed Hillary Clinton in the crucial, popularly elected, pledged delegates. This is the first time since Iowa that he has been in that position.

As we noted in a previous BuzzFlash Editor's Blog, because of the way in which Democratic delegates are finally allocated -- and because the number of superdelegate "pledges" are tallied by individual news organizations -- delegate counts for the Dems vary by news organization.

But here are two to look at:

CBS: 1134 for Obama and 1131 for Clinton

CNN: 1148 for Clinton and 1121 for Obama

CNN Delegate Count Projections as of February 11

Hillary Clinton

Pledged: 924

Superdelegates: 224

Total: 1,148

Barack Obama

Pledged: 986

Superdelegates: 135

Total: 1,121

Taking a closer look at the CNN figures, which put Clinton ahead of Obama in total delegate votes (including "pledged" superdelegate commitments), Obama is ahead among popularly elected delegates (excluding the appointed superdelegates) by 986 delegates to 924 for Clinton. This Obama advantage in the popularly elected delegates is likely to increase over the next few weeks until the "showdown" in Texas and Ohio. But the outcome of even those races -- if Obama continues with much momentum -- remains unclear. Remember the "Giuliani" fiasco from seeing others roll up delegates in a series of wins.

Clearly, the race is entering a stage where the two campaigns are likely going to risk the nomination based on their respective strategies over the next three weeks.

Both campaigns are going to continue to joust over positioning the issue of the role of the superdelegates, particularly if Obama emerges, at the end of the state primary voting, with a larger number of pledged delegates.

The key unknown, if Obama continues to rack up the majority of contested states by the crushing margins of the past weekend through the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries (which also includes Vermont and Rhode Island voting on that day), is if the momentum built up in such a scenario starts to impact the outcome in the March 4th states to the detriment of what is perceived as more favorable demographics for Clinton.

In what was expected originally to be a "walk-away with the nomination" on Super Tuesday run for Hillary Clinton, we have ended up with a race that will go down to possibly Pennsylvania on April 22, or beyond.

We are in uncharted and uncertain territory now. This is a campaign of two contrasting narratives and demographic bases, that nonetheless are evolving, as the jousting for delegates progresses.

It's certainly a race -- with all its crosscurrents of generational divisions, gender and race -- that political scientists will be studying for a long time to come.

But keep your eye on that pledged delegate count. At this point, Clinton has the edge with the superdelegates. But a large number of the uncommitted superdelegates are likely to hold back now, given that the race is so close.

And then there are those 26 Edwards delegates in the wing that we first posted about -- and that both Clinton and Obama are personally meeting with Edwards to discuss (as in seeking his endorsement). And the question of Michigan and Florida is still out there.

There is no question of Michigan and Fla. They broke the rules and the DNC punished them for doing so. That's it! Simple. If they are seated at the convention, after all the candidates were told that Florida's and Michigan's delegates would not be able to vote, it would be like crowning Senator Clinton, who campaigned as much as she could in those states, without breaking the rules, tip-toeing on the edges.

Memo to Howard: Don't let this happen. Stop it now! If this happens it will tear the Democratic Party apart, just when we need them to be unified and listening to the people.

The family feud within the Democratic Party is going to continue for awhile, alas.

But take heart in this. In almost every state, record breaking numbers of people are swarming to vote in the Dem primaries and caucuses. There is an excitement, hope and fervor that should make us all proud.

It would if there weren't all these shenanigans going on. If I get the slightest suspicion that the Clintons are stacking the deck, I will not vote for Hillary in November. I'm sick and tired of cheaters in the White House. Senator Clinton should know just how I feel. Betrayed! That will turn to anger. Then Heaven only knows.

I planned to vote for Edwards. Then he dropped out. So, I voted for Barak. I really didn't care one way or the other. But I do now. DON"T CHEAT!

We are engaging in the most fundamental act of democracy; we are voting for who will represent us in the White House. We feel empowered and passionate.

I would if I trusted anything about those machines and scanners. I expect some major hanky-panky, if not in the primary, then in the general.

That is a very good sign indeed.

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG

BuzzFlash Afternote: "As far as all the different delegate numbers that you see for Obama and Clinton, there is good reason for that. They are largely just estimates. In many states, final delegate allocations are determined at a follow-up state party convention or state party meeting. The counts won't change dramatically, but they will change. (This explains the differing claims over whether Clinton or Obama won one more delegate in Nevada. This won't be finally determined until a Nevada state party convention a little further down the road.) Also, the superdelegate 'pledges' of support are just that. They aren't recorded by the DNC, but kept manually by various media organizations."

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


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