Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Pakistan Moves Troops Amid Tension With India

Now this is scary as hell!


December 27, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan has begun moving some troops away from its western border with Afghanistan and has stopped soldiers from going on leave amid rising tensions with India, Pakistani officials said Friday.

Two of the officials said the troops were headed to the border with India in the east.

The move is likely to frustrate the United States, which has been pressing Pakistan to battle militants in its lawless northwest territories and working hard to cool tempers in the two nuclear-armed countries, following terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, last month. Indian officials have blamed a Pakistani militant group for the attacks.

By late Friday there was little to indicate that the troop movements constituted a major redeployment.

One senior Pakistani military official said the decision to move forces and restrict furloughs was made “in view of the prevailing environment,” namely deteriorating relations with India since the terrorist attacks. He added that the air force was “vigilant” and “alert” for the same reason.

With few details being presented, including how many soldiers were involved, it was unclear on Friday whether the troop movements reflected a serious fear of attack or were intended as a warning to India.

Several senior American officials said they had not seen evidence of major troop movements. Still, high-ranking Bush administration officials called Pakistani officials to urge restraint.

A White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, said, “We don’t want either side to take steps to raise tensions in an already tense situation.”

Since the terrorist attacks, India’s leaders have repeatedly said that they do not want war, but have also expressed frustration with what they have called Pakistan’s unwillingness to curtail militant groups. On Friday, Indian officials refused to comment on the reports of troop movements inside Pakistan.

The situation is complicated by deep divisions within Pakistan about how to deal with Islamic militants, including fighters from Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the northwest who cross into Afghanistan to attack American and NATO troops. Under intense pressure from the United States, the government has sent troops to battle the militants there in recent months, but many Pakistanis resent what they see as American interference.

United States officials have expressed fears over the last month that tensions between India and Pakistan would divert Pakistan’s focus from fighting the militants.

Some of the Pakistani officials who spoke of the redeployment said it was partly a response to new intelligence that suggested India could launch an attack inside Pakistan by early next week. All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity.

One senior Pakistani military official who said troops were being redeployed from the areas where government forces were engaging the Taliban, added that the soldiers who were leaving were “being pulled out of areas where no operations are being conducted,” or where winter weather had limited their ability to maneuver. He called the number of soldiers being moved “limited.”

He and another senior Pakistani military official interviewed Friday about the troop movements chose their words very carefully and offered few details. They said nothing harsh about India, even though they were speaking anonymously.

But two Pakistani intelligence officials — one from military intelligence and one from the country’s premier agency, Inter-Services Intelligence — described the situation in graver terms, and said troops along the border with India were on the highest state of alert.

Another Pakistani official said the air force had been in a “point defense” posture for one week, prepared to defend specific key defense installations and cities — including Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore — as well as the Kahuta nuclear weapons laboratory. Pilots are sleeping in uniform with their boots on, the official said.

Pakistani news media reported troops were being sent near the boundary that separates Pakistani- and Indian-controlled Kashmir, as well to the area surrounding Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city, about 20 miles from the border with India.

In public, Pakistani leaders have vowed in recent days not to attack first or be the aggressor in any conflict, but have warned India that it should not believe it can get away with launching even a “surgical” strike inside Pakistan.

“We will be compelled to respond if it happens,” said the Pakistani foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, according to Pakistan’s state news agency. “If war is imposed, we will respond to it like a brave, self-respected and self-esteemed nation.”

If the redeployment was meant to warn India, it would stand in contrast to some efforts this month by leaders in each nation to tamp down emotions that some feared could lead to hostilities between the countries, which have fought three wars since 1947.

Two weeks ago, for example, Pakistani officials went out of their way to play down what they said were two incursions by Indian warplanes into Pakistani airspace, calling them inadvertent in public even though some officials privately said the moves were most likely a test or a provocation. Their response to the airspace violations — which the Indian military denied — won praise from American leaders.

Indian and American intelligence officials have attributed the Mumbai attacks, which killed 163 victims, to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a banned group based in Pakistan that has fought Indian forces in Indian-controlled Kashmir for years. But Pakistani leaders say that India has not provided convincing evidence of who carried out the attacks.

For its part, India on Friday accused its neighbor and rival of “diverting attention” from terrorism by making statements in recent days that it would go to war if necessary.

The redeployment came as Indian authorities warned their citizens not to travel to Pakistan, citing news media reports that Indian citizens had been arrested there in connection with a bombing this week in Lahore.

But they took pains not to blame the elected civilian government in Pakistan.

“It seems that this is the work of other agencies in Pakistan that operate outside the law and civilian control,” an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

The Indian foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, met with his counterpart from Saudi Arabia, among Pakistan’s staunchest allies, as part of India’s worldwide diplomatic campaign to put pressure on Pakistan to quash terrorist groups operating on its soil.

“Instead of diverting attention from the real issue, they should concentrate on how to fight against terrorism and bring to book the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack,” Mr. Mukherjee said.

Indian officials have said privately in recent weeks that they are reluctant to strike Pakistan, and that even a limited attack on terrorist training camps would invite swift retaliation. Just as important, any military standoff would only make the Pakistani Army more influential in Islamabad — precisely what India least desires.

Somini Sengupta contributed reporting from New Delhi, and Steven Lee Myers and Thom Shanker from Washington.



(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Who Benefits From Mumbai Attacks?

by Steven Jonas, MD, MPH

In the past month or two, peace talks have been going on between the new, democratically elected (!) government of Pakistan and the Congress Party government of India (democratically elected, of course). The peace talks would eventually have to get to the status of the disputed region of Kashmir, of course. They would ultimately be considered successful only if a final settlement was reached of that dispute which was set up by the British when they left the Indian Raj split in two in 1947 (three, actually, for the original Pakistan had an East portion, now Bangladesh, and a West portion, now Pakistan). Initiated by the new Pakistani President, a businessman, they have focused at a much lower level, concerning such matters as visa-free travel (at present there are not even scheduled flights between the two nations' capitals), the opening up of trade between the two countries on a broad scale (essential for the Pakistani economy, now heavily dependent on the International Monetary Fund for its survival), and a joint "no nuclear first strike" treaty.


Who would benefit from the success of these talks? First, many businessmen in both countries. (That is not unusual, even for countries considered to be mortal enemies. Before the 2000 Taba peace talks between Israel and Palestine broke down in 2000, Israeli and Jordanian businessmen had concluded deals to benefit all three countries and were ready to move within two weeks of the signing of the proposed agreements.)


Second, of course, the masses of the people on both sides, if from nothing else that arms expenditures on both sides could be significantly reduced. Third, the Muslim population of India (India being the second largest Muslim country in the world, after Indonesia) which could then freely exchange visits with family members descended from those who moved (fled) to Pakistan at the time of partition, and vice-versa.


Fourth, of course, the people of Kashmir who live in proximity to the truce line, Hindu and Muslim alike, who could live without fear for the first time since partition.


Fifth, a gradually increasing Indian presence in Afghanistan, which makes the Pakistanis understandably very nervous, might be tamped down with US involvement, as part of any India-Pakistan deal. Finally, both governments, once having sold a peace settlement to their own parliaments, assuming that it would be fair one, would benefit hugely both domestically and abroad.


The United States would also benefit. First, from the reduction in tensions in the region in general. Second, it would possibly have a Pakistani ally in the conflict with the Taliban (which in my view also has to eventually be settled peacefully) which itself is not conflicted. Third, the new administration might be able to amend the Bush Administration nuclear agreement with India such that it would not put the US down so much on the side of possible further nuclear weapons development by the Indians.


It is into this atmosphere of possible long-range and wide-ranging peace talks that the attacks were launched. And so what happens to those talks? Well, for the time-being at least they would appear to be suspended. And they might be completely scuttled. Who would benefit from that happening? A number of actors, on both sides of the border.


To understand who benefits and why it is important to understand that the parliamentary government of Pakistan has everything to lose and nothing to gain if the peace talks are abandoned by the Indians. Thus they are to be believed when they say that they had nothing to do with the attacks, that they are outraged and horrified by them, and that they are offering senior level intelligence aid in hunting down the perpetrators who launched the raids from Pakistan territory.


So, first, who benefits from the attacks are those political, military and intelligence agency elements and the segment of the Pakistan power elite that they serve, who supported and very likely still support the deposed dictator General Musharraf (former friend of the Bush Administration). If the talks are suspended, if the economic situation in Pakistan becomes even more precarious, even if such developments were originally caused by their own policies (sound familiar?), they could see a route back into power, blaming it all on the Indians and "government weakness," of course. Second, the fiercely anti-Pakistan Hindu nationalists in India, thrown out in the last election two years ago, stand to benefit. Third, those elements of "Pakistani militancy" which have a place in the sun only because of the continuing disputes over Kashmir would clearly benefit. Indeed, an organization called Lashkar-e-Taiba which exists directly to challenge the Indian government in Kashmir is widely acknowledged to have been at the center of the very well-organized attacks. Lashkar is thought to have ties to al-Qaida.


Finally, according to the reporting of James Fanelli of the New York Post there is a fascinating wild-card here. It is an organized crime syndicate led by an Indian mobster named Dawood Irbrahim Kaskar (who likely does not go in for psychotherapy). Originally from Mumbai, he is thought to be living in Karachi, Pakistan, and ranks third on the Forbes international criminal most-wanted list. He is believed to have ties to the infamous Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. That may account for the fact that he has been sought by Interpol for ten years and never caught. Kaskar owned the vessel from which the attacks were originally launched. Oh, yes. Kaskar's main criminal businesses? Drug smuggling and illegal arms sales. Both of these would be severely crimped by any comprehensive regional settlement including that of the Afghanistan problem that could easily follow on from a comprehensive India-Pakistan settlement.

Amazing, isn't it, how when in certain parts of the world peace talks finally get underway, various elements whose interests, political, economic and otherwise would be harmed by their successful conclusion, conspire (and yes, I am not at all bashful about using that word) to do their best to scuttle them.


This article is based, in part, on J. Perlez, "Ringed by Foes, Pakistanis Fear the U.S., Too," and "New Risk in Danger Zone," and K. Bradsher, "Armed Teams Sowed Chaos with Precision," all from The New York Times, respectively Nov. 23 [before the attacks], Nov. 28 and Nov. 29, 2008; J. Fanelli (jfanelli@nypost.com) "Mumbai terrorist bares all on plot," NY Post, Nov. 30, 2008; and "Terrorist Strike Mumbai," The Progress Report, Dec. 1, 2008.


(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.


Friday, October 12, 2007

450 ppm. We've Already Passed It.

What can we do?

A key threshold crossed

An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report to be released next month will show that the limit on greenhouse-gases scientists hoped to avert has already been surpassed.







In Ray Bradbury's science fiction novel "Fahrenheit 451," that number represented the temperature at which books would burn, a symbol of a disturbing future under a totalitarian government.

For climate scientists, a similar number, 450 parts per million (ppm), holds its own ominous meaning. It represents a dangerous concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; a total that they were not expecting to be passed for at least another decade.

But a new UN-sponsored report, to be released next month, will show that as of 2005 the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had already reached 455 ppm, according to Tim Flannery, a prominent Australian climate scientist who says he's seen the raw data that go into the document.

In an interview on Australian television this week, Dr. Flannery said that an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report will show that carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide, methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and other greenhouse gasses are at much higher concentrations than previously thought. Reuters quotes him:

"We thought we'd be at that threshold within about a decade.... We thought we had that much time. But the new data indicates that in about mid-2005 we crossed that threshold.... What the report establishes is that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is already above the threshold that could potentially cause dangerous climate change."

About 75 percent of the total ppm represents carbon dioxide, associated with burning fossil fuels. The rest is a combination of the other gasses, he said.

On the Sierra Club website, blogger Pat Joseph explains the meaning of 450 ppm:

"450 ppm has long been held up as the threshold we dare not cross if we hope [to] avert the worst consequences of warming. Well, if Flannery is right, (and there's no reason to think otherwise) we crossed that line without even breaking stride."How did it happen? For one thing, countries such as China and India are actually "recarbonizing," Mr. Joseph says, meaning that their economies are becoming more energy-intensive "as they turn increasingly to [greenhouse-gas emitting] coal to feed their growth."

In May, the IPCC estimated current concentration of greenhouse gases at only 425 ppm, said a BBC report at the time. It noted that many scientists equated 450 ppm with a 2 degree C (3.6 degrees F.) rise in temperatures. Allowing temperatures to rise more than 2 C could lead to major impacts on the environment, scientists said. In the article, Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, explained the strategy this way:

"If you want to stabilise around 450 ppm, that means in a decade or two you have to start reducing emissions far below the current level.... So in other words, we have a very short window for turning around the trend we have in rising greenhouse gas emissions. We don't have the luxury of time."

But, says Flannery, named Australian of the Year for 2007, that window is closed. According to the Australian Associated Press he says that higher figure is due to miscalculating the potency of other greenhouse gasses, which are included in the 450 ppm figure and measured in terms equivalent to that of CO2. But he adds:

"[A]lso we have really seen an unexpected acceleration in the rate of accumulation of CO 2 itself, and that's been beyond the limits of projection ... beyond the worst-case scenario. We are already at great risk of dangerous climate change – that's what the new figures say.... It's not next year, or next decade; it's now."

A major UN climate change meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in December aims to set a course toward a new global agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The current Kyoto Protocol, signed by the majority of the world's nations but not the United States, expires in 2012. Flannery told Reuters that the 450 ppm figure adds to the urgency and importance of that meeting.

Meanwhile, Erwin Jackson, policy director of the Climate Institute, an Australian environmental group, told the Australian Associated Press that reducing greenhouse gas levels would be the only path to avoiding a catastrophe:

"The longer we stay above the kind of levels we're at at the moment, the more likely it is that we would start to see the loss of the Great Barrier Reef; you would actually start see the collapse of the great ice sheets and places like the Amazon starting to burn down."This weekly feature appears with links at csmonitor.com


(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. I.U. has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is I.U endorsed or sponsored by the originator.)


The Nazis, Fascists and Communists were political parties before they became enemies of liberty and mass murderers.