CIA Warned W.H. Of Possible Bad Consequences Of Invasion of Iraq

Tenet's book lists failures in war run-up

By Scott LindlawAssociated Press
April 28, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO --

The CIA warned the Bush White House seven months before the 2003 Iraq invasion that the United States could face a thicket of bad consequences, starting with "anarchy and the territorial breakup" of the country, former CIA Director George Tenet writes in a new book.

Agency analysts wrote the warning at the start of August 2002 and inserted it into a briefing book distributed at an early September meeting of President Bush's national security team at Camp David, Tenet writes.

The CIA analysis painted what Tenet calls additional "worst-case" scenarios: "a surge of global terrorism against U.S. interests fueled by deepening Islamic antipathy toward the United States"; "regime-threatening instability in key Arab states"; and "major oil supply disruptions and severe strains in the Atlantic alliance."

While the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies have been widely criticized for being wrong about much of the prewar intelligence on Iraq, the analysis Tenet describes concerning postwar scenarios seems prescient.

But he cautions against concluding that the agency predicted many of the difficulties that followed. "Doing so would be disingenuous," because the agency saw them as possible scenarios, not certainties, he writes. "The truth is often more complex than convenient."

A copy of Tenet's book, "At the Center of the Storm," was purchased by a reporter Friday at a retail outlet, ahead of its scheduled Monday release. Tenet served as CIA chief from 1997 to 2004.

The book is highly critical of Vice President Dick Cheney and other administration officials, who Tenet argues rushed the U.S. into war in Iraq without serious debate -- a charge the White House rejected on Friday.Chastising Cheney, Tenet writes: "Policymakers have a right to their own opinions, but not their own set of facts."Tenet also contends the administration failed to adequately consider what would come in the war's aftermath.Senior White House counselor Dan Bartlett dismissed Tenet's portrait of an administration that rushed to war in Iraq without serious debate."The president did wrestle with those very serious questions," Bartlett said.

And while calling Tenet a "true patriot," Barlett said he might have been unaware of the breadth of the prewar debate that led Bush to dismiss other options, such as diplomatic means, for reining in then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

In the book, Tenet offers a litany of questions that went unasked:*"What impact would a large American occupying force have in an Arab country in the heart of the Middle East?"*"What kind of political strategy would be necessary to cause the Iraqi society to coalesce in a post-Saddam world and maximize the chances for our success?"*"How would the presence of hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops, and the possibility of a pro-West Iraqi government, be viewed in Iran?
Copyright © 2007, Chicago Tribune


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